Hybrid thoughts

[ghini]

I did some quick math replying to Marthas journal. thought you might find it interesting:

If you go to http://www.fueleconomy.gov you can compare a regular civic with a hybrid civic.

A regular plain-vanilla Civic costs about $13,500 and has an estimated $908 a year in fuel costs. A hybrid civic costs $19,000 and has $658 in fuel costs. Both these are based on driving 15,000 miles a year.

The difference in cost is $5500. The difference in yearly gas costs is $312. At that rate, you would have to drive the Hybrid for 17.5 years before the money you save in gas is greater than they extra money you paid for a hybrid. If you drive less than 15,000 miles a year, then it's even longer. Even if gas prices double, it's still 8.75 years driving the same car. There are a lot of 9 year old Civics on the road. No one is sure if a Hybrid will last that long.

I'm sure in 20 years almost all new cars will be hybrids, or something similar. Right now they are like computers and digital cameras. Give them 3 years or so and there will probably be something new and better.

Comments

[xopherg.livejournal.com]

Some people might say that driving a hybrid provides social and environmental benefits that exceed the extra cost.

Plus, they're cool.

[violin.livejournal.com]

I'm not able right now, because of fatigue and busyness, to wrap my mind around how the possibbility of selling the car used changes the math, if at all. For simplicity, we could imagine that they depreciate proportionally, though it's doubtful...

I seem to be wrapping my head around it, anyway...

Lets say the value of the cars depreciate x per year. Like, if it falls 15% per year, x=0.85 Cause the numbers are better that way. If it's the same for both then the cost of ownership (in thousands) over n years would be

Cs(n) = (1 - x^n)13.5 + 0.908n for the standard civic

Ch(n) = (1 - x^n)19 + 0.658n for the hybrid.

Given a realistic estimate of x, we should be able to see when the real costs match up by equating the 2 expressions:

 (1 - x^n)13.5 + 0.908n = (1 - x^n)19 +  0.658n
-(1 - x^n)13.5  -0.658n  -(1 - x^n)13.5 -0.658n

0.25n = 5.5(1 - x^n)
/5.5   /5.5

n/22 = 1 - x^n
n/22 + x^n = 1

Sadly, at the moment I don't remember any easy way to solve that for n. But, I fed it into the solver on my HP, and if I've done everything right, x=0.9 (10% depreciation per year) gives 19 years before the real costs match up.

If you assume more aggressive depreciation, it gets worse: x=0.5 gives 22 years-- if the hybrid depreciates faster than the standard, then it loses out even more, of course.

Interestingly, if we assume 5% depreciation/yr, x=0.95, gives slightly less than 5 years. If x gets much closer to 1 (no depreciation at all) then the answers get useless very quickly-- nearly zero, since then the only cost of ownership would be gas.

Also interesting, to me, anyway, is that your answer of 17.5 years, found without thinking about depreciation, corresponds with the answer when x=0.9133-- 8.67% depreciation. So if they depreciate equally (not likely) and they depreciate faster than 8.67% then the hybrid does even worse. If they depreciate slower, the hybrid does better.

OK, back to real work...

[lorigami.livejournal.com]

sure, that works with today's gas price, plus, it's not just money that's the issue.

[fuzbal.livejournal.com]

dont forget you usually get a tax break on having such a car as well.

[lizerati.livejournal.com]

I just spent $31 filling up my car. Bring on the hybrids. Of course, I wish my damn office would move near a marta station.

[plantyhamchuk.livejournal.com]

Think about the trees, man. They'll thank you. They told me so.

[codymc.livejournal.com]

Man i so need to get the four barrel carb in my '73 convertible replaced/fixed so i can cruise around with the top down and listen to the 7 litre v8 rumble.

the really sad part? It's gets about the same gas milage as my '02 nissan frontier with an engine roughly half the size

[eneref.livejournal.com]

Hybrids simply cost more. There's no denying that. You forgot, however, to factor in the tax credits you get both federal (and here in Georgia, state) for driving a hybrid. But it doesn't drop their overall costs down below that of a regular car.

Of course, companies who make them get SUPER tax credits for producing them... and still charge through the nose.

hybrid vs. regular car

[snowtiger61.livejournal.com]

You're not buying the hybrid because you think it's going to break-even based on savings due to MPG.

You're buying the hybrid because the quantity of pollutants it spews is *tiny* compared to regular vehicles.

If one doesn't care about what one is breathing, then just buy a regular car.